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DEFLATION...DEFLATION...DEFLATION

Rich Walls - Tuesday, January 19, 2016

The year-to-date stock market declines are the worst start for equities in recorded history. Pundits and guests on financial news networks have done a disservice to viewers by not speaking truth to what is, and what will likely continue to occur in capital markets, and our country, for the foreseeable future. Has anyone dared to utter the word “deflation”? Global central banks have flooded their respective countries with cheap money, and have vowed to continue their devaluation… except for ours! Our Federal Reserve has raised short term rates while simultaneously lowering their GDP estimates for our country. Why? Good question. The only two logical answers are that they are either politically motivated, unlikely, or that they are basing their decisions solely on only one of their two mandates prescribed by congress... unemployment. Leaving their other, and much more significant mandate of price stability (inflation) not only ignored, but shunned. This could not be more of a mistake in our view. Basing Fed policy decisions on a headline 5.0 unemployment rate, which is not reflective of what our actual unemployment/underemployment rate is, is a dangerous route for determining macro-economic policy.   Read More

Flat Week, ENORMOUS Moves

Rich Walls - Friday, May 01, 2015

Despite a relatively unchanged US equity market, this week was anything but flat for key global data points. We saw a massive move in the FX market as the EUR/US Dollar spiked from 1.08 to 1.12, nearly a 4% rise. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil rose from $56 to $60, over a 7% increase, before settling around $59. The German Bund, mentioned in last week’s blog, has had an even more impressive sell-off this week. The yield on the 10y Bund, which had doubled last week, from 0.07% to 0.15%, has more than doubled again this week, from 0.15% to currently 0.357%. Our own US 10y Bond had a dramatic sell-off as well causing a rise in rates from 1.89% to currently 2.12%, an increase of 12%. These tectonic shifts in asset classes are something we actively monitor. Read More


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